Steve Cox | February 19, 2020
Cycle News Empire of Dirt
COLUMN
Red-Plate Weight
It takes a lot more than fitness, speed and a good motorcycle and race team to win a championship. It takes something much more intangible: the ability to thrive under the kind of pressure that would cause most people to fold. This definitely can be learned, but some racers just have it naturally. Defending 450SX Champion Cooper Webb is one of these racers. He thrives under pressure.
Four-time Supercross Champion Ryan Dungey is an example of a racer who learned how to thrive under pressure. He folded to pressure in 2008 and lost that year’s 250SX West Championship to Jason Lawrence before winning the championship in 2009 and the 450SX Championship four times. He speaks openly about how losing that title changed him as a person and as a racer.
Since thriving under pressure can be learned, the question is, has it been learned?
Webb’s one of only three current racers who have ever won the 450SX championship; the other two are 2018 champ Jason Anderson and 2004/2008 champ Chad Reed. Reed isn’t going to win the 2020 title, and Anderson’s chances aren’t looking too promising at the moment, with him already trailing by 37 points. So, the only racer truly in the championship hunt who has proven he can win this, the biggest off-road motorcycling championship in the world, is Webb. We know Webb can win this title, because he’s done it, and he’s also coming on strong of late, finishing 2-1-2 in the last three races, putting him 11 points out of the points lead with 10 rounds left to run.
For the bench-racing purposes of this column, now we’ll analyze the other three racers who are currently within 26 points of the championship lead (one race win’s worth of points):
Monster Energy Yamaha’s Justin Barcia
Since he’s won the Anaheim 1 series opener two years in a row, Justin Barcia has also led the 450SX championship two years in a row. His points lead lasted one race in 2019, with a sixth-place at round two in Glendale, Arizona, knocking him out of the championship lead. This year, his lead lasted two races before he relinquished it to Honda’s Ken Roczen.
Here are his career Supercross finishes with the red plate on his motorcycle, summarized:
2019 Glendale, round 2 — 6th
2020 St. Louis, round 2 — 2nd
2020 Anaheim 2, round 3 — 9th
It’s hard to say if Barcia can or can’t thrive under pressure, but although he’s riding strong right now, he’s not putting in the finishes necessary to vie for the title. He’s 20 points back at the moment after an impressive fourth-place finish in Tampa, where he passed more than 10 racers to achieve that result.
Honda HRC’s Ken Roczen
Ken Roczen is a fan-favorite for myriad reasons. He’s charming, friendly, outgoing and he races with heart. But by far, the most significant factor for his popularity is his determination. His struggle over the last few years will be legendary if it’s not already.
At only 25 years of age, it’s remarkable that Roczen has carried the red plate for leading the 450SX Supercross Championship seven different times in five separate years despite having only won 13 races in his not long 450SX career.
In 2014, at just 19, he won the series opener at Anaheim 1, then finished sixth with the red plate at round two in Phoenix and lost the points lead. He got the lead back again after a third-place at round three, then finished sixth with the red plate again and relinquished the points lead permanently to eventual champ Ryan Villopoto.
In 2015, his first year with the RCH Suzuki team after leaving Red Bull KTM, Roczen went 1-2-1 at the first three rounds to lead the championship going into round four in Oakland, where he made a significant error and came up short on a triple while battling Chad Reed for second early in the race. He finished 15th and relinquished his red plate, and points lead to eventual champion Ryan Dungey.
Then, in 2017, he won the first two rounds before his massive crash with the red plate at round three put him out for the rest of the calendar year.
Roczen briefly led the title chase last year with 2-3 finishes in the first two rounds and held the red plate until round four in Oakland, then relinquished it with a fifth-place finish in San Diego. Roczen took the red plate with a second-place at round six in Minneapolis, but he lost it for good one race later when Cooper Webb now famously snuck by Roczen for the win in Arlington, Texas, Webb winning by a record narrow margin of just 0.028 of a second.
This year so far, Roczen won his first race at round two in St. Louis, then took over the points lead after finishing second at Anaheim 2. He won the Glendale Supercross with the red plate a week later and then kept the red plate with a third in Oakland and a sixth in San Diego, but he relinquished his points lead to Eli Tomac last weekend in Tampa after finishing third in the main event. Tomac won.
Here are his career Supercross finishes with the red plate on his motorcycle, summarized:
2014 Phoenix, round 2 — 6th
2014 Oakland, round 4 — 6th
2015 Phoenix, round 2 — 2nd
2015 Anaheim 2, round 3 — 1st
2015 Oakland, round 4 — 15th
2017 San Diego, round 2 — 1st
2017 Anaheim 2, round 3 — DNF
2019 Anaheim 2, round 3 — 4th
2019 Oakland, round 4 — 5th
2019 Arlington, round 7 — 2nd
2020 Anaheim 2, round 3 — 2nd
2020 Glendale, round 4 — 1st
2020 Oakland, round 5 — 3rd
2020 San Diego, round 6 — 6th
2020 Tampa, round 7 — 3rd
Can Roczen gather it back up to challenge Tomac for the title? Has he learned how to thrive under this kind of pressure? After having overcome so much with his injuries, it’s certainly possible that he’s grown in this area. We’ll have to see.
Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Eli Tomac
And then there’s current points leader Eli Tomac. Tomac has won 30 races in his 450SX career but has only led the points standings, including now, three times! And he’s had a rough go of running the red plate, which seems odd considering he’s won three 450MX National Championships in a row outdoors.
Here are his career Supercross finishes with the red plate on his motorcycle:
2017 Salt Lake City (shared the red plate with Dungey) — 1st
2017 New Jersey — 8th
2019 Minneapolis — 6th
2020 Arlington — TBD
Being the sole owner of the red plate only twice (remarkable, since he has 30 wins in the class), Tomac’s points lead never lasted longer than one race, with an eighth and a sixth the two times he’s raced with the red plate all to himself. This could be just a fluke, not a pattern, but we’ll find out more this coming weekend in Arlington, which will be a Triple Crown race and could either help or hurt Tomac’s efforts depending on how the night goes and the starts he gets. CN