Jorge Lorenzo (left) and Valentino Rossi (right) will have the world’s eyes on them this weekend in Spain.
After two weeks of off-track drama, press releases and re-releases, blame, mudslinging, rumors and even Italian television crews invading Marc Marquez’s property, it’s time to go racing. The Court of Arbitration for Sport has handed down its findings – Valentino Rossi will start from the back of the grid in his attempt to seal an historic 10th world title.
And it now appears that even though he still holds onto the title lead by seven points, teammate (I use this term in the loosest sense) Jorge Lorenzo is odds on to take his third MotoGP World Championship.
The odds are stacked against The Doctor, but it’s not over yet.
Rossi will have to ride like the man who, in the early part of the ‘00s, was utterly unbeatable if he’s to win the championship, but it’s still not out of the question. Should Lorenzo not finish either first or second at Valencia, the odds become increasingly stacked in Rossi’s favor. And don’t for a second think Lorenzo has a clear path to the title with any ‘outside’ help. Following the furor of the Malaysian clash between Marc Marquez and Rossi, you can bet your house that Repsol and HRC will have already told Marquez and teammate Dani Pedrosa they must win the Valencia MotoGP for two reasons.
A: To dispel any thought of favoritism from Marquez toward Lorenzo to take the title.
B: To take the final race victory of the season and one home sponsor Repsol considers extremely important.
Dani Pedrosa has the best form of anyone at Valencia and will be going for his third win in the last four races.
That means if it comes down to a last corner dogfight between Marquez and Lorenzo, Marquez will go for the win, regardless of the championship consequences. The same is also said for Pedrosa, who is the most successful rider in the history of the Valencia MotoGP, with six victories across the MotoGP, 250cc and 125cc classes.
And the two other Yamaha riders, Tech3’s Pol Espargaro and Bradley Smith, simply do not have the speed to contend with any of the current ‘aliens’ – Lorenzo, Rossi, Pedorsa or Marquez. That means no Yamaha help, either. Lorenzo will have to do it all on his own, but he has form at Valencia.
Marc Marquez will know he can do only one thing, win the race to avoid any further criticism.
Anyone who remembers Lorenzo’s race victory after toying with the field during the final round of the championship in 2013 at Valencia, a race in which he still retained a slim hope of beating then rookie Marquez to the title, knows he is surely the man to beat this weekend. His long developed, recently mastered skill learned from Casey Stoner of decimating the field on cool tires in the opening laps of the race must come to the fore here, and if he can win the race, it’s very possibly game over for Rossi – unless The Doctor finishes directly behind him – a task even the nine time world champion admits will be very difficult from the back of the grid.
Andrea Iannone play a part in the title outcome?Rossi does have allies in his quest for the title, most notably in Andrea Iannone, who recently changed his facebook profile picture to one of himself and Rossi on the podium together in a show of support for the besieged champion following the Malaysian fallout. But the tight, switchback nature of the Valencia layout will not play to the strengths of Iannone’s Ducati, a machine renowned for devastating top speed but recalcitrant ways in the twisty stuff. Valencia has two short straights, and unless Iannone rides like he did at Phillip Island – a track ideally suited to the Ducati’s strengths – it’s unlikely he will challenge for the win. A possibility is a podium place, and it will be very interesting indeed if, say, Iannone is sitting third behind second placed Lorenzo with Rossi directly behind him with a few laps to go. Hmmm, the mind boggles with hypotheticals…
Lorenzo’s done it before at Valencia and knows nothing short of a victory will do.
For Lorenzo, the objection is clear. Pole position, holeshot, win the race. Anything else that happens behind him is out of his control. One thing is for certain, there has never, in recent memory, been a more eagerly anticipated MotoGP race as this weekend’s Valencia MotoGP.
Here is where Rossi needs to finish in relation to Lorenzo to take a 10th world title.
- If Lorenzo wins, Rossi must finish second.
- If Lorenzo finishes second, Rossi must finish third. Should Lorenzo take second and Rossi fourth, they would tie on 325 points, but Lorenzo would be champion on account of his greater race victory tally.
- Lorenzo third, Rossi sixth.
- Lorenzo fourth, Rossi ninth.
- Lorenzo fifth, Rossi 11th.
- Lorenzo sixth, Rossi 12th.
- Lorenzo seventh, Rossi 13th.
- Lorenzo eighth, Rossi 14th.
- Lorenzo ninth, Rossi 15th.
